Despite Trump’s claim that the Iran peace deal is complete and that Hormuz is open for business, we’d like to point out that Israel’s war is not over with Iran.
And despite Trump’s social media posts about “Let the oil flow” we have serious doubts.
Even the Presstitutes are celebrating reports that traders are betting shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could begin returning to normal by August.
Oil prices have fallen sharply on hopes of a U.S.-Iran agreement, and prediction markets are assigning better-than-even odds that vessel traffic will recover during the second half of this year.
But when you look beneath the headlines, even the traders themselves remain skeptical.
As we posted yesterday in The Iran Peace Deal and the NY Knicks (HERE) there really is no deal…yet.
The agreement merely opens a negotiation period regarding Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions relief, and uranium enrichment.
Ironically (or NOT) these are the very issues that helped create the crisis in the first place.
Israel is already criticizing the arrangement, arguing that it fails to address missiles, regional proxy groups, and broader security concerns.
Iranian hardliners are attacking the deal from the opposite direction, claiming Tehran is giving away leverage for uncertain promises.
And, unfortunately, when both sides are unhappy before the ink is dry, that is usually a warning sign rather than a guarantee of peace.
Israel’s War
BTW, reopening the Strait of Hormuz is not as simple as issuing a press release.
Reports indicate that mines must still be cleared, security guarantees must be established, and shipping companies remain cautious after months of disruption.
Can you blame them?
Because tanker operators, insurers, and cargo firms have all learned that one missile, one drone strike, or one political disagreement can instantly shut down the route again.
As a result, the mistake people continue to make is assuming that reopening a waterway ends a geopolitical crisis.
It does not.
And what we’re hearing simply does not add up.
Consider this…
If the objective is peace, then why was one of the most contentious parts of the negotiations about the demand that hostilities in Lebanon should also come to an end?
And reports indicate that the U.S.-Iran framework includes de-escalation in Lebanon.
But…and this is a Very Big Butt… Israeli officials declared they would not withdraw from southern Lebanon and would continue to reserve the right to act independently.
Hmmm! Independently?
Defense Minister Israel Katz is on record saying Israel would remain in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza regardless of the agreement.
Based on that alone it looks like Trump’s Art of the Deal has a lot of holes in it.
This is where the entire story begins to unravel.
Trump has been publicly insisting that Netanyahu will have to accept whatever agreement Washington negotiates, reportedly saying: “I call all the shots. He doesn’t call the shots.”
However, this remains to be seen.
The issue is not Iran.
The issue is that Netanyahu appears to have viewed this conflict very differently than Washington.
Once again, we ask:
WHO DO YOU BELIEVE?
Let’s not forget how every politician knows exactly how powerful the pro-Israel lobbying network has become.
AIPAC has spent decades directing enormous sums into congressional races.
And the real danger comes when political leaders become prisoners of their own narratives.
